Tuesday, January 24, 2006

The Best Picture Contenders were:




BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN (Focus Features)
This 2005 cowboy love story based on Annie Proulx's short story has been the critical darling of the season. It had strong showing by the precursors, won the Golden Globe for Best Drama, the PGA, the DGA and SAG nominations indicates that this is a solid lock for a nomination in this category.
Winning the DGA award makes Brokeback the front-runner for the Best Picture Oscar as the DGA winner and the Oscar winner have matched in 51 of the last 57 years including three of the four past years

CRASH (Lions Gate Films)
This explosive film on racism might be just the one to crash the party on Brokeback Mountain. It is directed by Paul Haggis, who penned last year's Best Picture and has scored very well at every recent guild nomination including a winning boost at the SAG awards for Best Ensemble

GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK (Warner Bros)
A Golden Globe nomination for Drama as well as PGA, DGA and SAG mentions show strong across the board support and makes this a strong contender for the big prize especially as Hollywood likes to see itself on the right side of the topical free speech debate.

CAPOTE (Sony Pictures Classics)
This biopic on writer Truman Capote did very well in the guilds which enabled it get a mention on nomination morning despite it being a very small film compared to the rest in the category.

MUNICH (Universal/Dreamworks)
This was touted as a best picture frontrunner even before the first frame was shot. The film opened to strong reviews but the precursors and guilds have been lacking in their overall support. It eventually made the shortlist and that could indicate strong build up to the finishing line on Oscar night.

WINNER: CRASH

The Best Director Contenders were:


ANG LEE (Brokeback Mountain)
Lee's helmed the critical darling of the year and just won the DGA which is consider the harbinger for the best director Oscar
Winning the DGA award also makes Lee a front-runner for the Best Picture Oscar - See Best Picture above

PAUL HAGGIS (Crash)
Having penned last year's best picture winner and directing the frontrunner for best picture this year, Haggis could spring a surprise on current favourite, Ang Lee (above) which might indicate where best picture will head at the end of the evening

GEORGE CLOONEY (Good Night and Good Luck)
Clooney is Hollywood's renaissance "man of the year" and Actors who make up the majority voting block in the Academy might want to reward "one of their own"

STEPHEN SPIELBERG (Munich)
Spielberg and Munich were almost written off by pundicts earlier on in the season and the strength of his enduring influence could be felt when the film did very well on nomination morning with five big nominations including this category. He could cruise to victory on a wild card

BENNETT MILLER (Capote)
His surprise nomination by the DGA evolved into his first nomination for the director's prize. He could be dark horse in this race

WINNER: ANG LEE (Brokeback Mountain)

The Best Actor Contenders were:



PHILLIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN (Capote)
Barring an unexpected upset, Hoffman is expected to cruise to victory in this category having dominated the awards season so far.

HEATH LEDGER (Brokeback Mountain)
Ledger has a small chance of victory if he rides on the coattails of an anticipated Brokeback victory

JOAQUIN PHOENIX (Walk The Line)
It is hard to see any chance of a Phoenix victory since his film did not make the best picture shortlist as anticipated, the flip side is if enough Academy members who wanted to see "Walk" get a best picture nod and now feel the only major way they can vote for it is for best actor (and actress).

DAVID STRATHAIRN (Good Night, And, Good Luck)
He is the dark horse in this race

TERENCE HOWARD (Hustle and Flow)
He could be the wild card in the pack

WINNER: PHILLIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN (Capote)